Nifty closed the week at 24,366.00. Last Friday it closed at 24,570.65. The week cost 204.65 points, or 0.83%. Two rising weeks ended here. Sensex closed at 78,009.25, down 489.92 points (0.62%). Bank Nifty closed at 57,491.10, down 255.35 points (0.44%).
The five days
| Day | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|
| Mon 10 | 24,581.25 | 24,620.95 | 24,511.10 | 24,583.80 |
| Tue 11 | 24,575.10 | 24,576.85 | 24,429.25 | 24,471.70 |
| Wed 12 | 24,472.45 | 24,473.30 | 24,265.95 | 24,435.95 |
| Thu 13 | 24,431.60 | 24,431.60 | 24,311.40 | 24,395.85 |
| Fri 14 | 24,361.90 | 24,405.20 | 24,296.80 | 24,366.00 |
Read only the High column. 24,620.95. 24,576.85. 24,473.30. 24,431.60. 24,405.20. Five days, five ceilings, each one lower than the last.
Thursday is the day to keep. The open and the high are the same number — 24,431.60. The market did not trade above its opening price for the whole day.
The entire week fitted between 24,620.95 and 24,265.95. That is 355 points, about 1.5% of the index, top to bottom, in five days.
Nifty has not closed above 24,700 since 3 August, nine sessions ago. On that day it reached 24,774.30 and closed at 24,774.30 — high and close were the same number, the exact mirror of Thursday. It last closed below 24,300 on 28 July, thirteen sessions back.
Broad market — the week, and the long view
| Index | Close | Week | Quarter | YTD | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years |
|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,366.00 | −0.83% | +2.1% | −6.7% | −1.1% | +0.9% | +25.4% |
| Sensex | 78,009.25 | −0.62% | +2.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Bank Nifty | 57,491.10 | −0.44% | −0.1% | −3.5% | +3.9% | +15.6% | +30.4% |
| Next 50 | 74,484.90 | −0.28% | +4.0% | +7.4% | +12.0% | +4.0% | +69.3% |
| Midcap 150 | 23,420.00 | — | +2.8% | +5.1% | +11.4% | +12.0% | +65.5% |
| Smallcap 100 | 19,734.90 | −0.67% | +4.6% | — | — | — | — |
Stop at one number in that table. Nifty is up 0.9% in two years. Not two months. Two years. Over the same two years, Midcap 150 rose 12.0% and Next 50 rose 4.0%. If you owned only the fifty largest companies in India, you have earned almost nothing since August 2024.
Over three years the picture flips completely — Nifty +25.4%, Midcap 150 +65.5%, Next 50 +69.3%. So the big returns happened in the first of those three years, and the last two have been a long, flat, exhausting corridor.
Sectors — the week, and the long view
| Sector | Close | Week | Quarter | YTD | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years |
|---|
| Metal | 12,941.40 | −1.88% | +3.4% | +15.9% | +40.4% | +46.3% | +97.7% |
| Auto | 29,207.55 | −1.49% | +10.3% | +3.6% | +21.1% | +16.4% | +90.6% |
| Pharma | 26,445.25 | −0.36% | +4.4% | +16.4% | +19.4% | +20.1% | +72.8% |
| Energy | 38,553.85 | −0.51% | −3.0% | +9.1% | +11.9% | −8.9% | +46.2% |
| Infra | 9,419.10 | — | +0.3% | −2.1% | +4.8% | +4.4% | +57.1% |
| PSE | 9,844.95 | — | −1.4% | −0.1% | +2.7% | −10.3% | +81.8% |
| Realty | 895.15 | +1.04% | +7.9% | +2.0% | +1.8% | −12.5% | +69.6% |
| CPSE | 6,450.25 | — | −3.7% | +1.3% | +1.3% | −10.5% | +86.0% |
| Fin Services | 26,213.65 | −0.95% | −1.3% | −5.1% | −0.5% | +16.0% | +33.4% |
| PSU Bank | 8,739.65 | −0.53% | +2.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Media | 1,587.25 | +2.08% | +7.4% | — | — | — | — |
| IT | 31,357.75 | −0.60% | +19.2% | −17.2% | −10.0% | −21.1% | +1.1% |
| FMCG | 48,614.90 | −1.66% | −0.4% | −12.4% | −11.1% | −20.7% | −5.8% |
Five things this table says that one week could never say
One. IT is the story of this quarter, and almost nobody said so. IT is up 19.2% since 30 June — by far the largest quarterly move on the board. Yet over one year it is still down 10.0%, over two years down 21.1%, and over three years up just 1.1%. A sector can be the quarter's best performer and still be three years behind. Both are true. If you bought IT in August 2023, you have earned 1.1% in three years while Metal earned 97.7%.
Two. FMCG is the only sector negative on every single horizon. Down 1.66% this week, down 0.4% this quarter, down 12.4% this year, down 11.1% in one year, down 20.7% in two, down 5.8% in three. Nothing else on the board looks like that. When the things people buy every day stop earning money for shareholders for three years, that is a message about the Indian consumer, not about the stock market.
Three. Metal has been the quiet king. Up 97.7% in three years, 46.3% in two, 40.4% in one. And it was the worst sector this week at −1.88%. A bad week inside a great three years is what a leading sector normally looks like. This is why one week is never enough.
Four. The public-sector story has already been paid. PSE is up 81.8% and CPSE up 86.0% over three years — but PSE is down 10.3% and CPSE down 10.5% over two. All of that gain arrived in the first year and has been given back slowly ever since. Anyone who arrived at the PSU party in 2024 has waited two years for nothing.
Five. Realty and Energy both look better this quarter than they do over two years. Realty +7.9% this quarter, −12.5% over two years. Energy −3.0% this quarter, −8.9% over two. Turning points look exactly like this from the inside — messy, and only obvious later.
The thread that ties it together: the rupee
The rupee touched a record low this week, around ₹95.4 to the dollar, pushed there by oil after the United States said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stays indefinitely. Brent traded near $88 and American WTI near $82.
A weak rupee is not one thing. It is two opposite things at the same time.
For a company that earns in dollars and spends in rupees — that is IT and Pharma — a weak rupee makes every invoice worth more in rupees. IT is up 19.2% this quarter and Pharma 4.4%. They are the quarter's first and third best.
For a company that buys in dollars and sells in rupees — that is Metal, FMCG and Auto, which import ore, oil, palm oil and components — a weak rupee is a bigger bill. Those three were the three worst sectors this week: −1.88%, −1.66%, −1.49%.
The same rupee. Opposite outcomes. If you learn one thing from this week's page, learn that: before you ask whether news is good or bad, ask good for whom.
Fear and flows
India VIX closed at 11.27, down 7.32% on the week, five lower closes in a row: 12.25, 11.86, 11.69, 11.42, 11.27. It has not closed above 13 since 24 July, fifteen sessions ago. The index fell all week and fear fell all week too. Nobody was paying for protection.
On Thursday, foreign investors sold ₹510.69 crore of shares and Indian institutions bought ₹4,353.09 crore. For August so far foreign investors are net buyers of ₹3,607.81 crore — after selling ₹5,778.99 crore in July, ₹49,028.63 crore in June and ₹55,963.33 crore in May. The heavy selling has paused. Domestic money is still the floor.
India's own numbers
July CPI came in on Wednesday at 4.45%, up from 4.38%. Food inflation 5.52%. Onion +22.54%, ginger +83.62%, garlic +35.36%. Rural inflation 4.84% against urban 3.96% — the village is paying more than the city. Silver jewellery inflation printed 109.84%.
The RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% on 7 August, cut its inflation forecast for this financial year to 5.0% and raised growth to 6.7%. The Governor said inflation peaks in the third quarter of this financial year, then eases. India's 10-year government bond yield sat near 6.78%.
The world went the other way
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 7,798.99 on Thursday. Nasdaq Composite 26,803.03. Dow 53,839.99. America's inflation slowed for a second straight month to 3.4% and producer prices came in softer; the market now puts the odds of an American rate rise in September at about 35%, down from 55% a week earlier.
Japan's Nikkei closed at 68,713.80, up about 5% on the week, with the broader Topix at a record. Korea's Kospi rose 2.4% on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,116.85. Germany's DAX rose 0.5% to 26,442.54, France's CAC 40 was flat at 8,648.48, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,744.31.
But the number that matters most is in Japan's bond market, not its stock market. The Japanese 10-year yield is near 2.87%, the highest since the 1990s. Japanese investors sold $29.6 billion of American government debt in the first quarter of this year and brought the money home. Japan has quietly funded the world for thirty years. You could see the effect this week: America sold 10-year bonds at 4.683%, the highest yield since the 2008 crisis, on a day when inflation news was good.
Gold traded near $4,315 an ounce on Friday after a ten-week high; it had gained about 9% the week before. MCX October gold was near ₹1,52,304 per 10 grams, September silver near ₹2,32,910 per kilogram, both lower on profit booking.
The dates already fixed
Monday 17 August — China data, People's Bank of China decision, Canada inflation.
Wednesday 19 August — minutes of the American Fed's July meeting, where three members voted for a rate rise, the sharpest split since 2016. UK inflation the same day.
Thursday 27 August — August monthly expiry in India.
Thursday 27 to Saturday 29 August — the Jackson Hole symposium. The Fed Chair speaks Friday morning, 28 August.
September — the Bank of Japan and the American Fed both meet.
October — the RBI's next policy meeting.
Two of those deserve your attention: 19 August and 28 August.
One last thing
Every number on this page is a fact about the past, with a date attached. You can check every one of them yourself. That is the whole point.
Next Friday's close will also be a fact. Everything between now and then — mine included — is opinion.
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Stocktale is market commentary and a journal. Sagar U.S. is not SEBI-registered. Nothing here is investment advice, no number here is a forecast, and no one here will ever tell you what to buy or sell. Read, check, and decide for yourself.