Nifty 50 fell 99 points to 22,623 on Wednesday, 14 October, after wholesale inflation jumped to 11.39% in September. Oil near $106 a barrel pushed fuel costs up and foreign funds sold shares for another day.

THE STORY SO FAR - On Tuesday we wrote The IMF says 7% growth. Prices say 5.54%. That 5.54% was the price rise in shops. Today the government released the price rise at the factory gate, and it was twice as high. Earlier this month the RBI made its first rate rise since 2023.



WPI (wholesale price inflation, the change in prices that factories and traders pay each other) was 11.39% in September. In August it was 9.92%. → Goods cost businesses 11.39% more than a year ago.

Fuel and power rose 25.85%, up from 22.93% in August. → Diesel, electricity and gas cost a quarter more than last year.

Factory-made goods rose 9.76%, up from 8.37%. Food in the wholesale market rose 8.66%, up from 7.05%. → The rise is no longer only oil. It has spread to things made in factories and to food.

CPI (retail inflation, the change in prices families pay in shops) was 5.54% in September, released on Monday. → Shoppers are paying 5.54% more. Factories are paying 11.39% more.

A simple example. A small biscuit maker pays for diesel to run trucks, power to run ovens, and flour and packets. If all of these cost 11% more, the maker can raise the biscuit price, or earn less on each packet. Either the family pays more, or the business keeps less.

Earlier this month, with prices rising, the RBI raised the repo rate (the rate at which RBI lends to banks) to 5.50%. → Higher rates make loans cost more, which slows spending and price rises.



Brent crude was about $106.4 a barrel at 3:35 pm. → India buys most of its oil from abroad, so every dollar more adds to our import bill.

On Wednesday, a missile fired by Yemen's Houthis hit an office building of Saudi Arabia's state oil company in Dhahran. Saudi officials reported a limited fire and no injuries. → No loss of oil output was reported.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) said on Wednesday that diesel is the world's tightest fuel market. → Diesel moves India's trucks, tractors and goods trains.



One dollar cost ₹95.17 at the close, down from ₹95.36 on Tuesday. → The rupee gained 19 paise. A stronger rupee makes oil and other imports a little cheaper.

The rupee has gained since the RBI's 10 October rules that limited betting on the rupee falling.



On Tuesday, the Indian government paid 7.35% a year to borrow for 10 years. → When a safe government bond pays 7.35%, shares have to offer more to attract money.



Foreign funds sold ₹1,857 crore of Indian shares on Wednesday. Indian funds bought ₹2,670 crore. → Indian funds bought more than foreigners sold.

Tuesday was the 13th selling day in a row for foreign funds, as reported by PTI. Wednesday made it one more.

The tax department notified a change to India's tax treaty with Mauritius, in force from 10 August 2026. Tax officers can now deny treaty benefits to set-ups made mainly to save tax. Gains on shares bought before April 2017 stay protected. → Many foreign funds have invested in India through Mauritius.





India VIX is the fear gauge. It rose. → Traders paid a little more for protection.

Nifty opened at 22,715.75 and closed 93 points lower. The last time it closed below today's level was Monday, 12 October.

Of the 50 Nifty stocks, 42 closed below their 60-day average and 8 above. Across the whole exchange, 2,351 stocks rose and 1,694 fell. → The index fell, but more stocks rose than fell.



Best: Energy +1.5%, FMCG +1.2%, IT +1.1%. Worst: Pharma -1.3%, Healthcare -1.2%, Capital Markets -1.2%.



At 6:15 pm, gold on MCX was ₹1,47,567 per 10 g (-1.3%). Silver was ₹2,16,225 per kg (-2.8%). → Gold and silver fell along with shares today.



US prices in September rose 3.7% from a year ago, up from 3.4% in August. Petrol prices there rose 9.1% in one month. This was released at 6 pm India time, after our market closed. → Oil is pushing up prices in America too, not just in India.

US markets on Tuesday: S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.15%, Dow -0.35%. Asian markets closed lower on Wednesday. Europe was trading higher in the evening.



14 to 18 Oct: the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The Finance Minister is attending. 15 Oct: quarterly results from large IT, FMCG and insurance companies. 16 Oct: a ₹34,000 crore government bond sale. 17 Oct (Saturday): results from the three largest private banks.

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There are two price counts in India. WPI tracks what factories and traders pay. CPI tracks what families pay in shops.

Factory costs reach the shop shelf only when sellers raise their prices. Some raise them fast. Some wait, and earn less in the meantime.

In August, wholesale inflation was 9.92% and retail inflation was 4.83%, a gap of 5.09 points. In September the gap was 5.85 points.