The Nifty added 256 points today and finished at 24,242, its largest
single-day gain since 17 July. India VIX — the index that measures how
much movement traders are paying to protect themselves against — fell to
12.01, the calmest reading of the month.

That close landed on a number this market has been circling since spring.



Since 1 April the Nifty has traded 81 sessions. It has closed above
24,244 in ten of them, across four separate visits: four days in late
April, two in early May, three in early July, one on 17 July. The longest
it ever stayed above was four sessions.

Fourteen of those 81 sessions were Fridays. Three closed above the
number — 17 April, 3 July, 17 July. No two of them were consecutive.

Why count Fridays and not every day? Because a Friday close is the week's
close, and the week's close is what survives. Tuesday's close is gone by
Thursday. The Friday number is the one printed on the weekly chart, and
the weekly chart is what a monthly chart is built from. A level a market
crosses on a Wednesday and loses by Friday never happened, as far as the
long chart is concerned.

Four months. Four visits. Ten closes out of eighty-one. Never a second
Friday.

✦ You now know how to weigh a level without anyone telling you what it
means. Count the closes, not the touches. A number a market has touched
constantly and closed above ten times in four months is not a wall being
fought over — it is a number the market keeps walking past and coming
back to.

— Sagar U.S.

This is commentary only. Nothing here is a buy/sell call or a
recommendation — no derivatives, no positions suggested. For any personal
investment decision, please consult a SEBI-registered adviser.