The market opened with a bang — the bulls arrived with a gap up. The question now is whether they can hold it all day, or whether the bears come for them before the bell. Because the open is not what counts; the close is. 23,888 is the number the bulls have been circling, 23,666 the one the bears keep coming back to — the same level we've been watching all week. The bears want a close below it. The bulls did what they did on Friday: they stayed above and lived to fight another day. Overhead sits 24,000 — a round number with no mathematics behind it, but every trader in the country can see it without a chart, and that shared attention is what gives it weight. Six hours from now we'll know whether this morning meant anything.

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